Relitigating, Part 2: Manny Pacquiao Vs. Joshua Clottey Pay-Per-View Numbers

There have been a couple subjects that generated heated debate in this space in the last week, to the point that I believe they require a bit of relitigating. First up was the philosophy of boxing undercards. Now: analyzing the pay-per-view buys for Manny Pacquiao-Joshua Clottey.

Let me start by saying that in my original post, I think people might have misunderstood my overall point. As I said then, the 700,000 buys for Pacquiao-Clottey count as a "grand success" for any boxing pay-per-view. But, by the standard of what we've come to expect from Pacquiao, what kind of numbers boxing has been doing lately and what it meant for a possible Floyd Mayweather-Pacquiao fight I think it was a bit of a letdown at the same time. These two things are not incompatible. I think I explained both the good and ill of the numbers fairly well, so I'll largely let those arguments stand.

I am bothered slightly that a pair of boxing writers I like -- Scott Christ and Dan Rafael -- treated it like pure heresy that anyone could hold any opinion other than theirs. I don't assume they were talking about me, but Rafael's response to anyone who considered the numbers disappointing was that they were "insane," and Christ acted like anyone who thought that was someone who simply was incapable of rational discussion. For what it's worth, I think both their views about the numbers being a pure success were fair. I don't disagree with them all that much, in reality. My goal was to present a few counterpoints that I thought people were neglecting, while simultaneously acknowledging the reality that 700,000 is an impressive figure.

With that, I'll respond to some of the substance of remarks made here and elsewhere, and make a few additional points myself.

The numbers were strong for a recession. This is a point I admit I didn't take into account. So if you brought that up, thanks for doing so. In that context, the numbers are somewhat more impressive. That said...

The economic environment was somewhat offset by fewer PPVs these days and boxing's stronger overall position. Back when I was flipping out about the good numbers for Manny Pacquiao's 2009 PPVs and the numbers done by Mayweather-Juan Manuel Marquez, someone -- I think it was friend of the site roheblius -- made the strong point that the numbers were helped by boxing cutting down on its PPV schedule. I agreed then, and I re-make that point now, because I failed to do so in my original post. And I refer back to my post on this point: Boxing is in so much better shape these days, that 700,000 sounds a touch low by recent standards. ESPN, Good Morning America, The Washington Post -- everyone was covering this fight, and if you go back to 2008, none of those programs would have touched this fight with a million-foot pole. And they did it because boxing is more mainstream now than it was in 2008 and in many previous years, which is ultimately good news (something Christ and I agree on). Which means more casual fans tuning in, something I'll get to a little later.

Keep in mind: These were two non-Americans doing these numbers. Some people objected to me comparing Pacquiao's numbers against Clottey to Oscar De La Hoya's, or Mayweather's, or Mayweather's potential numbers with Shane Mosley, since all of those gents were American and neither Pacquiao nor Clottey hail from the U.S. of A. My answer to that is that Pacquiao already has proven he can be a pay-per-view draw despite not being American. I'm not going to count that as a handicap against him anymore. That handicap is gone. And Ricky Hatton wasn't American, and Miguel Cotto was Puerto Rican, and Pacquiao did better numbers with them than against Clottey. I understand why those fights did better numbers, but don't pretend that a lack of U.S. citizenship for Pacquiao and Clottey necessarily means he does lower numbers, because Pacquiao has proven he has overcome that factor.

There was no "24/7" preview series. That would have boosted the numbers, for sure. But HBO passed on it. Consider the reason: It probably would have been boring. Clottey isn't some amazing charismatic personality, and Pacquiao's personality has its limits, too. This is part and parcel of why the card's numbers weren't as high as they could be. These things cannot be separated. Pacquiao's marketing assets are thus: Good guy, interesting story, exciting fighter, fights the best. That sells tickets, obviously, since 51,000 people came to see Pacquiao-Clottey, and it moves PPV numbers, because 700,000 is a good number. But it means there are limits. If he doesn't fight the best, the numbers go down. If HBO prefers to do a 24/7 show for something else (which I'm about to touch upon) that they think will be more dramatic, then you can't really lean too much on "Pacquiao-Clottey would have done better with a '24/7' show."  Pacquiao-Clottey isn't the kind of fight that would get a "24/7" show from the start. Mayweather-Clottey is, because of the next point.

There was no trash-talking or gimmicks for Pacquiao-Clottey the way there would be for a Mayweather bout, which explains why the numbers were/will be lower than X Mayweather fight were/will be. This relates back to the previous point. Mayweather moves PPV numbers in part because of his gimmick. He plays the jackass and he generates controversy and heat to his cards. It makes HBO want to put him in 24/7 shows. If you're saying Pacquiao's fight sold less because he didn't trash talk as much... well, that's on him. His stardom is contingent in part on being a good guy, and saying "you can't compare Pacquiao to Mayweather because Mayweather's a trash talker" is ignoring the fundamental appeal of both men. What's more, I don't remember any trash talking in any Pacquiao fight of late, from either man, and all those fights did much better than Pacquiao-Clottey. So why is it a factor all a sudden?

Pacquiao did better against Clottey than Mayweather did against the likes of Zab Judah and Carlos Baldomir. I reject this entirely. This doesn't come close to being an argument where each side of the analogy matches up. Mayweather fought Judah and Baldomir before he became a big star in 2007 following the Oscar De La Hoya bout. You can mark what kind of numbers Mayweather did pre-De La Hoya and post-De La Hoya, and it's worlds different. You can make the same kind of marker with De La Hoya for Pacquiao, too. If you want to compare how Pacquiao and Mayweather have done against one another, comparing pre-De La Hoya Mayweather to post-De La Hoya Pacquiao tells you nothing whatsoever.

There was a short window, two months, for promoting the fight. I'm sure this had some impact, and I failed to mention it in my original post. And it's a legitimate excuse for why Pacquiao-Clottey may have done worse numbers than otherwise. (In this formulation of the argument, a legitimate excuse translates to "it did well under the circumstances.") It's not like some of these other things where the excuses given are excuses that never were an issue before, or are excuses that the ignore the fundamental nature of Pacquiao's appeal and such. That said, I don't know quite how much impact it had. Does that much more important promotion get done in three months that doesn't get done in two? To Top Rank's credit, they got a lot of good promotional value out of having the fight at Cowboys Stadium at all, and there were the news conferences announcing the fight, and there was quite a publicity blitz in the first week. I think this is hard to quantify, but I grant it was a factor.

This fight reached casual fans. Rafael made this point. I don't doubt it. But it reached a lot less of them than Pacquiao did in previous fights. I'm not sure what the real significant value of point of this is, although it is somewhat useful. We already know Pacquiao reaches casual fans. I guess we now know he does even with less desirable match-ups, albeit to a significantly lesser degree, but that's a fairly secondary measure of a successful PPV in my opinion.

There was no fallout from Mayweather-Pacquiao not happening. Christ made this point. I do doubt it. Some of the people leaving comments on his own site said they refused to buy Pacquiao-Clottey out of protest for Mayweather-Pacquiao falling through. Unless he thinks they were all liars, or people who went back on their word, I don't see why he wouldn't acknowledge that those comments were representative at least some percentage of people were turned off of Pacquiao-Clottey because Mayweather-Pacquiao didn't happen.

But one needn't take the word of boxing fans vowing this or that. Top Rank's Bob Arum said himself that there was fallout from the demise of Mayweather-Pacquiao. Per Time magazine:

"To be frank, we had to overcome disappointment," he says. "People were looking forward to a Pacquiao-Mayweather fight."

I know Arum is tricky and one shouldn't put too much stock in what he says, but tell me why Arum says there is fallout from Mayweather-Pacquiao's demise if it isn't the case. I've tried to think of a reason, and I can't think of one.

The bad undercard didn't have anything to do with the numbers. I addressed this in Part 1. Short version: I think it did, at least in some small measure, because people I know and lots of people elsewhere said they wouldn't buy the fight because of the undercard, and there had to be more people like them who didn't happen to mention it in at a boxing website.

People expected better. This is my argument. When expectations aren't met, that's one definition of a "letdown." Arum expected more -- he thought Pacquiao-Clottey would do 1 million. Christ expected more -- he said he thought it would do in the 800,000-900,000 range, and that he wouldn't be surprised if it reached 1 million. than the Earlier in fight week, I expected more -- I thought it could be in the range of 900,000, but as the week went on and I saw the buzz was not there like it had been for other fights, I downgraded my expectations, and I still overestimated. There were people who were more accurate in their predictions (like SK), but the final number fell short for many of us.
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I don't think people want to see another fight with Clottey. I just loved seeing Pacquiao and Mayweather bout.

Manny Pacquiao: Floyd Mayweather 'needs me to bolster his career'

MANILA (AP) — Manny Pacquiao is still open to fighting Floyd Mayweather Jr., but is waiting for the challenge to come from the other side and for promoters to iron out a spat over drug testing.

"I came this far in my boxing career without Mayweather, so I see no need to call him out," Pacquiao told reporters Monday. "He needs me to bolster his career.

"I am open to him fighting me anytime he wants to."

Pacquiao returned to thousands of cheering fans in Manila to celebrate his latest victory over Joshua Clottey in Dallas. He'll now focus on a bid to enter politics, campaigning for a seat in the Philippines' House of 

Representatives in the May 10 national elections.

Mayweather's insistence on Olympic-style testing was the primary reason negotiations fell through in January for a megafight against Pacquiao. Mayweather wanted blood tests up to 14 days before the fight, while Pacquiao claims he feels weak after drawing blood and would not agree to testing within 24 days.

The negotiations quickly deteriorated, and Pacquiao signed to fight Clottey while Mayweather turned his attention to welterweight champion Shane Mosley.

Mayweather will face Mosley in Las Vegas on May 1 after both agreed to undergo an unlimited number of unannounced blood and urine tests before and after the fight.

"He should win against Mosley. If not, Mosley and I will fight," Pacquiao said.

Pacquiao is now concentrating on the national elections. His 2007 campaign fell short, but this time Pacquiao said he is better prepared.

"I have prepared for my political plans even before I faced Clottey last week," he said. "I am ready to campaign."

The two-month campaign starts later this week. Apart from running for his own seat in southern Sarangani province, Pacquiao is also campaigning for presidential aspirant Manny Villar, a senator and the richest politician in the country.

Villar raised Pacquiao's hand after welcoming him at a hotel Monday, before the boxer headed for a church service and a courtesy call in the presidential palace.

Asked if he plans to retire from boxing if he wins at the election, the 31-year-old Pacquiao said he was undecided.

"My own mother asked me to stop boxing. We'll talk about it," he said.

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I hope like any boxing fans in the world to see Pacquiao-Maywether clash in the ringside before Manny stops boxing even though he has nothing to prove.

Pacquiao-Clottey generates 700,000 pay-per-view buys

Manny Pacquiao's 12-round decision victory against Joshua Clottey on March 13 at Cowboys Stadium generated 700,000 HBO pay-per-view buys and $35.3 million in revenue, the network announced Tuesday.

"The pay-per-view performance of Pacquiao-Clottey significantly exceeded our expectations," Mark Taffet, senior vice president for HBO PPV, said Tuesday. "It is a testament to the popularity of Pacquiao and the vitality of the sport, and it gives us great encouragement as we look toward the May 1 (Floyd) Mayweather-(Shane) Mosley pay-per-view fight."

Pacquiao's 12 pay-per-view fights have generated 6.25 million buys and $320 million in pay-per-view revenue. — Bob Velin
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Fighting for a not so known Clottey, Pacquiao proves his popularity as the greatest boxer today and maybe of all-time.

Will a Pacquiao vs. Mayweather Jr. Fight Ever Happen?

What would be the biggest draw in the boxing industry today? If you were to ask a boxing purest they would say they want to see a Pacquiao-Mayweather, Jr. bout. As a matter of fact it is the only thing boxing inner circles are talking about. If it were to take place the pay-per-view draws would be off the charts, which is exactly what the promoters salivate over. To quote Tom Cruise and Cuba Gooding Jr., "Show Me the MONEY!"

Manny Pacquiao's most recent bout vs. a relatively unknown, Joshua Clottey, drew a whopping 700,000 buys. If he can draw that versus a no-name like Clottey, just imagine what a highly anticipated matchup like Pacquiao vs. Mayweather Jr. would pull in.

However there are problems with putting together this bout, most notably Mayweather's camp wants Pacquiao to take a test proving he isn't on the juice. Unfortunately, Pacquiao's camp insists that he isn't and they refuse to take a test to proving that claim. Mayweather insists that there will never be a fight until a test is taken.

Second problem is Mayweather's take on the proceeds. His camp wants a 65-35 split. Problem is that if Pacquiao can pull 700k buys with Clottey, there is little bargaining power for Mayweather. This means that Manny is in the drivers seat and Mayweather must put up or shut up.

Let's hope to see both of these fighter's man up and square off. It will be a fight of the ages!

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I think many people were tired of Mayweather's bunch of alibis to fight Pacquiao. Just want to ensure his flawless undefeated record but still he must proved those records. Fight Pacquiao!

Manny Pacquiao Will Fight Floyd Mayweather and Then Retire: Doubtful

by Colin Linneweber, Senior Analyst

As expected, WBO world welterweight champion Manny “Pac-Man” Pacquiao severely outclassed former IBF welterweight titlist Joshua “The Hitter” Clottey to earn a lopsided unanimous decision victory last weekend at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, TX.

Pacquiao (51-3-2, 38 KOs), the first boxer in history to win seven world titles in seven different weight divisions, acted as a puncher and Clottey (35-4, 20 KOs) played the role of a willing punching bag.

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

The final punch statistics showed that Pacquiao landed 246 of 1,231 punches in comparison to Clottey’s paltry total of 108 of 399.

Now that Clottey is an utter afterthought, Pacquiao’s promoter, Bob Arum, will begin to seek for the Filipino icon’s next opponent.

The public has long clamored for a matchup that would pit Pacquiao versus “Pretty Boy” Floyd Mayweather (40-0, 25 KOs).

Unfortunately, an extremely lucrative Pacquiao-Mayweather prizefight seems unlikely because the two insanely stubborn and egotistical camps haven’t been able to agree on a drug testing protocol at this juncture.

Mayweather is now scheduled to fight current WBA welterweight champ “Sugar” Shane Mosley May 1 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas.

A potential adversary that has been mentioned for Pacquiao is disgraced former WBA, IBF and WBO welterweight titleholder Antonio “Tijuana Tornado” Margarito.

In order for Margarito to even be eligible to scrap, he first needs to regain his license to box.

The “Tijuana Tornado” had his boxing license justifiably revoked by the California State Athletic Commission for “at least a year” last February after it was confirmed that he attempted to battle Mosley (46-5, 39 KOs) with a plaster-like substance inside of his hand wraps.

Thankfully, Margarito was caught and proved to be a cowardly charlatan by officials at the Staples Center in Los Angeles before the match began and he had the opportunity to seriously injure Mosley with his cement fists.

Once Margarito had his illegal hand wraps removed, the “Tijuana Tornado” was promptly brutalized by Mosley and defeated by ninth round TKO.

Margarito is the quintessential tough and rugged Mexican pugilist in the ring.

Nevertheless, his attempted actions against Mosley are a cardinal sin in boxing and they should never be forgiven.

Plus, Margarito is simply not in the same sphere as Pacquiao is as a boxer.

Pacquiao’s trainer, Dedham’s Freddie Roach, said he would like to see “Pac-Man” fight Mayweather and then forever retire from the vicious sport of boxing.

“Mayweather and be done with it,” said Roach, 49, a four-time trainer of the year who was diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease last decade. “There are no more challenges out there. I know there are some fights, but will the general public really want to buy that? I’d like to see him go out on top and not be one of those cases that stayed too long.

Manny has things to fall back on that others don’t. He’s an actor, a singer, he’s running for Congress. Why is Roy Jones still fighting? Because he doesn’t know anything else but boxing. Manny does.”

Roach (39-13, 15 KOs) fought as a professional lightweight for nine years himself and he blames his ailment on competing in the Sweet Science for too long.

“People ask me, ‘Why would you want the guy you make the most money off to quit?’” said Roach. “We’ve done well with each other. I’d rather see him quit than go on after Mayweather. It is more important to me that he has a long and healthy life when this thing is over.”

Boxing fans want, and deserve, to see Pacquiao versus Mayweather.

Sadly, boxing has aptly been called “the red light district of sports” and fans rarely receive what they warrant.

Despite a purse that could pay both prizefighter’s in excess of $30 million apiece, Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather will never fight.

Typically, boxing and its deprived fans will be the biggest losers yet again.

Now, in the meantime, Bob Arum just needs to find Pacquiao another slouch to lambaste.

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We can really tell what will happen if ever Pacquaio fight Mayweather, but I know the world is really excited about this.